VRA ruling weighs on Dems’ 2028 primary calendar

Democrats are weighing whether they can use their 2028 primary calendar to try to rebuild their party's strength in the South amid aggressive GOP gerrymanders.

As Democratic National Committee members meet in D.C. this week to discuss which states will lead the next presidential nominating contest, the GOP push to dismantle majority-Black districts and dilute Democrats’ power across the South is ratcheting up the selection stakes. Some members are now advocating for two southern states to make the cut as the Callais ruling adds fresh urgency to Democrats’ long-running debate over how to amplify the voices of Black voters who have long been the party’s backbone.

“As we consider how we draw the map for 2028, we need to also take into consideration the impact of the Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act,” Donna Brazile, a longtime Democratic strategist who sits on the Rules and Bylaws Committee that runs the state selection process, said in an interview.

“I’m also of the view that if we can have maybe two southern states, maybe this is time to rebuild the Democratic Party across the South,” she added. “The fact that we only could play in one or two southern states last presidential cycle — that is just not acceptable.”

Brazile, a Louisiana native who twice served as acting DNC chair, is also pushing each of the 12 states jockeying for positions in the early window on what steps they’re taking to protect voting rights and access.

At least one southern state is guaranteed a spot in the early lineup given the RBC's regional approach to the 2028 calendar. But there are four regions and up to five slots, leaving one spot as a true wild card. Multiple RBC members on Wednesday expressed an openness to having two states from the South in the early window, as a way to both bolster the party’s standing with Black voters and better align with the nation’s population shifts.

“It would be really important to send a message that the South is a real battleground,” said Susan Swecker, a RBC member and former Virginia Democratic Party chair. Prioritizing two states from the South, she said, would send a “strong message to [President] Donald Trump and his cronies that we're not going to take it anymore.”

Carol Fowler, a former South Carolina Democratic Party chair who also sits on the RBC, said Democratic voters are “going to be very disappointed if the DNC disregards … what is happening in the South right now to our Democratic voters, and in particular to our Black voters.”

Fowler and Swecker, who stood side by side as they spoke to POLITICO, are friends. But their states are on a collision course in the calendar debate.

In all, five states are competing for at most two southern slots: South Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee. Georgia and North Carolina are positioning themselves as critical battlegrounds that best reflect Democrats’ diverse and changing electorate. But those two states, and Tennessee, face logistical hurdles between state election laws and GOP leaders that make it unlikely they’ll be able to move up their primaries.

Democrats’ efforts to elevate Georgia failed in 2024, making it less likely that RBC members would be willing to roll the dice on one of those states again — giving Virginia an opening even as Georgia Democrats argued Wednesday it would be different this time around, particularly if they win this year's gubernatorial and secretary of state races.

North Carolina Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton said in an interview that national Democrats’ investment in her state’s presidential primary would boost down-ballot candidates in critical races. That includes contests for three state Supreme Court seats that could give the party leverage to counter GOP gerrymanders that have further tipped the state’s congressional delegation toward Republicans.

“While Democrats have gone through the last two years trying to go mano-a-mano with Republicans on redistricting, North Carolina will be the first state in the country where we can go on the offense [against] Republicans rather than the defense when it comes to redistricting after that 2028 cycle,” Clayton said. “I cannot do that, though, if we don’t get the resources to those down-ballot candidates.”

But it will be tough to topple South Carolina, a longtime early primary state that former President Joe Biden propelled to the front of the pack in 2024. Some Democrats acknowledge that Republicans’ failed attempt to target Clyburn’s seat likely bolsters the state’s argument to stay high on the list.

Democrats have pledged an aggressive response to Republican efforts to erase blue seats across the South. But they were dealt a significant blow when Virginia’s top court thwarted a map that could have given them an edge in four House districts, and they face limited options to counteract GOP maneuvers in red states. Still, Republicans have faced setbacks of their own, with GOP lawmakers earlier this week blocking their own party’s effort to draw out Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn in South Carolina and an Alabama court tossing a map that would have left Democrats in the state with just one House seat, though it’s being appealed.

Gerrymandering is just one of the factors RBC members are grappling with as they weigh which states will have an outsized role in choosing the Democratic Party’s next leader. The half-dozen states that made their pitches on Wednesday faced questions that ranged from their demographics to their voter-protection efforts.

Southern states are also facing fierce competition for the No. 1 slot from other regions. New Hampshire, which has traditionally held its primary first, positioned itself Wednesday as a proven proving ground for presidential hopefuls. Nevada, which presents Thursday, plans to argue that it’s the most representative of the coalition of working-class and diverse voters that Democrats need to win back. Even Iowa, which Democrats discarded after their botched 2020 caucus, is fighting for a way back in.

The jockeying is overt: New Hampshire and Michigan Democrats carted in swag bags of local sweets and other state-themed paraphernalia on Wednesday. Nevada hosted an evening reception for RBC members. South Carolina previously sent around copies of Clyburn’s latest book.

Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel told POLITICO that the VRA fallout “makes it even more important to have diverse states as part of this conversation.” But he said that could also mean putting a state like Michigan, which he said is the most racially diverse of the midwestern battlegrounds, in the early window.

New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Ray Buckley also said it’s “important to elevate the voices of color” within the party. Asked by POLITICO whether that meant a southern state needs to be first, he said that “a southern state needs to be within the early states.”

South Carolina, which usually votes later in the early window, “has been the decider for the last 20 years of who the nominee is,” Buckley said. “That can’t get much more powerful than that.”