Vulnerable Republican plays Trump card in tight House race

One big bet at the center of Rep. Derrick Van Orden's reelection campaign this week is that the best salesman for some of Donald Trump's painful economic policies is the president himself.

Some 17,000 farms and a longstanding dairy industry have made the economy of Van Orden's rural Wisconsin district, a crucial artery in a major milk-producing state, particularly sensitive to Trump's tariff regime, and the spike in gas and fertilizer prices set off by the Iran war.

As they battle to keep control of the House in this fall's midterm elections, a bevy of Trump Cabinet officials — and, this Friday, the president himself — are moving to boost Van Orden in the ag-heavy swing district.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is set to make her second appearance with Van Orden, a staunch Trump ally, in less than six weeks. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. held a news conference inside a machine shed on Monday where he lamented how American children had been woefully "deprived" of whole milk.

Van Orden has found himself in the position of having to defend White House policies that have been blamed for farm labor shortages, trade disruptions and soaring production costs as he campaigns for a third term in a district he has narrowly won twice.

"There's probably no bigger test of what farm and rural issues are going to do in the midterms than this district," said Brian Reisinger, a rural policy strategist and former GOP aide who grew up on a farm in Wisconsin. "Candidates like Congressman Van Orden, they have to be able to drive the kind of rural and small town vote that has defined President Trump's victories. … And some of the international crises that we have going on right now are creating serious economic cross-pressure."

Van Orden, who serves on the House Agriculture Committee, has touted his support for farmers and rural communities — reliably Republican voters in recent elections — as central to his political identity, and has said dairy farmers are his top priority.

"When I talk to my farmers, they don't like instability," Van Orden said in an interview. "[Iran] declared war on us 47 years ago, and they've been killing Americans for almost five decades. And once this concludes, which it will shortly, the prices are going to go back down."

The GOP busywork of trying to secure Van Orden a third term is coming long before Democratic voters get a chance to pick his challenger in the state's August primary. And much of the effort is focused on bolstering the incumbent's pro-agriculture bona fides.

"Van Orden remains a steadfast voice and fighter for Wisconsin farmers in Congress," said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Zach Bannon, who added that the lawmaker "continues to deliver commonsense wins to expand investments in rural communities, protect family farms, and bolster crop insurance."

At the same time, Van Orden has backed White House policies that have rankled farmers, consistently voicing support for the Iran war and criticizing the Supreme Court's decision to strike down some of Trump's tariffs.

"I think [farmers] are growing frustrated with Trump's administration for which Van Orden is a huge cheerleader," said Max Hart, a beef producer who suggested that the dismay might keep some farm-country voters home in November. "They probably can't bear to vote for a Democrat, but they probably don't support Trump or Van Orden's policies," said Hart, who didn't vote for Van Orden or Trump in 2024, but who has voted for candidates from both parties in the past.

Trump will "return to the Badger State on Friday to highlight his strong support for Wisconsin's farmers," White House spokesperson Liz Huston told POLITICO in a statement. Huston said the president will promote his administration's efforts to "deliver lower input costs, new trade markets, less red tape, a stronger farm safety net, a doubled death tax exemption, no taxes on rural property loan interest, and new Rural Opportunity Zones."

This visit comes as Van Orden appears increasingly vulnerable: The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan political analysis site, has moved the race from lean-Republican to a tossup. And the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has tapped his presumptive opponent, Rebecca Cooke, for its "Red to Blue" program, which provides organizational and financial support for candidates angling to flip GOP-held seats. Cooke leads Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge comfortably in the polls ahead of the August primary.

Wisconsin's 3rd district backed Barack Obama in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections before supporting Trump in all three of his runs for the White House. Van Orden won less than 52 percent of the vote in his successful campaigns against Brad Pfaff in 2022 and Cooke in 2024, after losing to longtime incumbent Democrat Ron Kind by a similar margin in 2020.

Cooke, a moderate who touts her farm-family background on the campaign trail, has outraised Van Orden. She said the GOP's performance so far will afford her a new foothold with voters who want lawmakers to "deliver results and not make headlines."  

"I've talked with a lot of folks… who have said 'I voted for Trump, but I didn't vote for these tariffs,'" Cooke said in an interview. "I think it's really opposite of what people thought they were buying into, especially when it came to agricultural policy, and the impact that tariffs have had on our family farms."

Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, said that Trump's tariffs are unpopular with the majority of Wisconsinites, and public opinion on their damage to the farm economy is particularly stark.

A statewide Marquette poll conducted in March found that 60 percent of respondents thought tariffs were hurting farmers. In the Western part of the state, the area that includes the 3rd district, the sentiment was stronger, with 67 percent saying that tariffs were hurting farmers.

When asked about how he thinks unpopular Trump agriculture policies will play in his district, Van Orden pointed to the $12 billion in economic aid for farmers the administration announced in December.

Wisconsin Farmers Union President Darin Von Ruden, who lives in the district, noted that it is a place where – as is the case for many rural communities – the problems facing farmers resonate throughout the local economy.

"If farmers are struggling, it just boils down there to everybody else: the bankers, the vets, the supply stores, the supply co-ops, your processing co-ops, all are impacted by what's happening at the farm level," Von Ruden said.

Cooke is trying to turn those concerns to her electoral advantage through moderate messaging, a focus on the economy and emphasis on her agricultural roots. She said the negative impact of family farm bankruptcies on rural economies in Wisconsin was one of the things that initially motivated her to run for Congress.

"When I'm talking to people at a dairy breakfast or at a county fair, I don't usually lead with 'I'm Rebecca Cooke and I'm a Democrat,' because they walk right by me," she said. "But if I introduce myself and I say, 'I'm Rebecca Cooke, I grew up on a dairy farm … we need more folks in the middle willing to get things done, avoiding the chaos,' [then] most people nod their head."