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What key swing voters want from their candidates: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, a newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, we break down the findings from our focus groups with voters who backed President Donald Trump in 2024, but went for Democrats in last month’s gubernatorial elections. Plus, Kristen Welker explores how the health care fight in Washington could play out on the campaign trail.

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— Adam Wollner

They backed Trump in 2024 and Democrats in 2025. What will they do in 2026?

By Ben Kamisar and Bridget Bowman

Voters who backed Democratic governors in New Jersey and Virginia this year after supporting President Donald Trump in 2024 have a message for both parties: Reject your party’s extremes and run campaigns about more than just Trump.

In new focus groups, 14 swing voters from New Jersey and Virginia revealed sharply negative views of both parties — and of politicians broadly. They explained that in last month’s elections in their states they were drawn to Govs.-elect Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, who cast themselves as moderates and transcended the damaged Democratic Party brand.

And while 10 of these voters disapproved of Trump’s job performance so far and voiced concerns about high prices, a majority said they did not view their votes for governor as a protest against Trump.

Instead, their consistent refrain serves as an important message to Republicans and Democrats as they look to sway swing voters in key races across the country next year: Candidate quality matters, ranging from positions on issues to personality to professional background.

“I mean, look, I’m a Republican, but let me tell you, if somebody is checking all the boxes for me, if they’re a Democrat, I’m going to go with my gut and what I feel,” Cynthia G., a 52-year-old from New Jersey, said of Sherrill, who served in Congress before she won the governorship.

“And Mikie is just proven to me. Naval officer, formal federal prosecutor, mother of four. She’s tough, but she’s like the quiet storm. She’ll get things done,” said Cynthia, who participated in the recent focus groups, which were produced by Syracuse University and the research firms Engagious and Sago, and were observed by NBC News as part of the 2025 “Deciders” series.

Exit polling from the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races show Sherrill and Spanberger, another former House member, both had some crossover appeal as they sailed to double-digit victories, each winning 7% of voters who cast ballots for Trump in 2024.

“The most important lesson for both parties in 2026 is to not run flawed candidates,” said Rich Thau, president of Engagious. “While affordability, political moderation and President Trump’s job performance all mattered in Virginia’s and New Jersey’s gubernatorial races, what mattered most to swing voters was candidate quality.”

Read more from the focus groups →

Health care stalemate sets up a major 2026 issue

Analysis by Kristen Welker

This week made one thing clear when it comes to next year’s midterm elections: Affordability, particularly health care costs, will be a top issue.

There was the special election in a deep-red House district in Tennessee, where Democrats significantly narrowed their margin of defeat compared to 2024 as they focused on those issues. And on Capitol Hill, lawmakers expressed doubts that they could reach a deal on Obamacare subsidies, which are set to expire at the end of the month and could cause premiums to soar for millions of Americans.

This is a real concern for scores of voters. David S., a 47-year-old Democrat from Garfield, New Jersey, who voted for President Donald Trump last year but backed Democratic Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill in November, was among the participants in our recent focus groups who said they were anxious about the economy.

“I’m worried that I’m going to have to pay $300 a month more for my health insurance come January,” David said, voicing concern about the Affordable Care Act subsidies. He said he voted for Sherrill because he viewed the GOP candidate as a “good old boy” politician, and he was drawn to Sherrill’s proposals to lower energy costs.

As members of Congress have so far failed to reach a deal on those subsidies, Senate Democrats released their own proposal this week extending the funds for three years, which is unlikely to have much Republican support.

The Trump administration, meanwhile, has yet to release its own health care plan.

One year ago, Trump told me during an interview for “Meet the Press” that he had “concepts” of a health care plan, saying: “If we come up with a better answer, I would present that answer to Democrats and to everybody else and I’d do something about it.”

And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on “Meet the Press” on Nov. 23 that the administration would have an announcement later that week on health care costs, but that didn’t happen. Bessent also suggested that costs would improve soon, noting, “Some are going to come down in weeks. Some are going to come down in months.”

Amid the back-and-forth on health care and affordability in the nation’s capital, Americans continue to say they’re concerned about the economy. A new Gallup survey released this week found the lowest economic confidence in 17 months, with just 21% of Americans saying in November that economic conditions are good or excellent, while 40% say conditions are poor.

And both parties continue to face headwinds going into the 2026 midterm elections. Democrats are grappling with GOP redistricting efforts, as the Supreme Court ruled yesterday that Texas can use its new Republican-drawn map next year. And, as we saw in Tennessee on Tuesday, Republicans continue to struggle to turn out Trump voters when the president is not on the ballot.

We’ll delve into the debates on Capitol Hill over these issues and more on “Meet the Press” this Sunday with Sens. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., and Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C.

🗞️ Today's other top stories

👀 Exclusive: Vice President JD Vance said his marriage with second lady Usha Vance is “as strong as it’s ever been” in an interview with our colleague Henry J. Gomez. Read more →
⚖️ SCOTUS watch: The Supreme Court agreed to decide the lawfulness of President Donald Trump’s contentious plan to roll back automatic birthright citizenship for nearly anyone born in the U.S. Read more →
🔎 Pipe bomb suspect: The man charged with planting two pipe bombs near the DNC and RNC on the eve of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol told the FBI he believed conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. Read more →
💉 The new Health Dept.: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s vaccine advisory panel rolled back a decadeslong recommendation that all newborns get a first dose of the hepatitis B vaccine within 24 hours of birth. Read more →
➡️ Another strike: U.S. Southern Command said it carried out another “lethal kinetic strike” at Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s direction on a vessel in the eastern Pacific Ocean that killed four men. Read more →
📝 Epstein saga: A federal judge in Florida has ordered the release of material from grand jury investigations into Jeffrey Epstein from 2005 and 2007. Read more →
🏛️ In the courts: A federal grand jury in Virginia declined a Justice Department request to indict New York Attorney General Letitia James on new mortgage fraud charges, less than two weeks after the original criminal case against her was dismissed. Read more →
🗺️ Redistricting roundup: The Indiana House passed a map that was drawn to net the GOP two seats, though its fate in the state Senate remains uncertain. Read more →
⚽ Trumpian flair: Today’s FIFA World Cup draw in Washington appeared to be tailored to one key player: Trump. Read more →
🕺 Ballroom blitz: The White House has brought in a new architect to work on Trump’s “vision” for his massive $300 million ballroom project. Read more →