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What we learned spending the final weeks on the ground in Pennsylvania: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, political reporter Allan Smith and senior White House reporter Peter Nicholas empty their notebooks after spending the last two weeks on the ground in battleground Pennsylvania. Plus, senior political editor Mark Murray breaks down our final pre-election NBC News poll.

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Inside the final sprint in the biggest battleground state on the map

By Allan Smith and Peter Nicholas

PITTSBURGH — No state has played a bigger role in the presidential campaign in the run-up to Election Day than Pennsylvania.

It’s been the backdrop for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris more than any other state and the site of the most spending on behalf of either candidate. It’s where Trump was almost killed over the summer, only to make his triumphant return months later. It’s where he served french fries during a photo op at a McDonald’s and danced before the cameras for almost 40 minutes during a rally that turned into an impromptu music-listening session.

It’s where Harris unveiled her running mate, her economic platform and made appeal after appeal to disaffected Republicans.

It’s where Harris and Trump held their only debate. It’s served as a proverbial red carpet for prominent surrogates.

And over the final two weeks of the race, both candidates and their running mates held 16 events in Pennsylvania — including Monday, marking some of Harris and Trump’s final rallies of the campaign.

To get a sense of life in the pivotal battleground state during this closing stretch of the campaign, NBC News traversed Pennsylvania for two weeks and spoke with more than two dozen voters, officials and operatives working on races here.

As it stands, most supporters on either side are not expressing over-the-top confidence that their side will pull out a victory. Polling in the state shows an incredibly tight race — one that mirrors the results of the last two presidential elections here. Driving through Pennsylvania, one notices a swing state made up of swing streets, along which neighbors have signs for the opposing candidates right next to each other. In some cases, there are even swing families — and talk of politics is verboten.

Jennifer Mann, a Trump supporter from Philipsburg who attended the former president’s rally in State College late last month, said that everyone here has friends or family in their immediate circle with differing views on who should win.

“So it’s really a sticky situation,” she said, adding that such political conversations “usually don’t happen, because it causes a lot of risk.”

NBC News poll underscores America’s divides on the eve of the election

By Mark Murray

The final polls, including the national NBC News survey, can’t tell us who will win the presidential election. But they make one thing crystal clear: This country remains deeply divided on the eve of the election.

That’s evident in our poll’s deadlocked 49%-to-49% result between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump among registered voters and in other surveys’ margin-of-error findings.

It appears in the NBC News poll’s gigantic gender gap (with Harris leading among women by 16 points and Trump ahead with men by 18 points), its deep urban-rural divide (with Harris leading among urban voters by 22 points and Trump ahead with rural voters by 33 points), and its fault lines by education (with Harris leading among white voters with college degrees by 12 points and Trump ahead with white voters without college degrees by 30 points.)

It’s also clear in how each side sees the opposition. Just 4% of Democratic voters hold a positive view of Trump, compared to 93% who hold a negative view (-89 net rating). And 5% of Republican voters hold a positive view of Harris, while 92% hold a negative view (-87 net rating.)

“We’ve grown further apart, and we’ve picked our corner,” said pollster Bill McInturff, the Republican half of the bipartisan duo conducting the NBC News survey. “Each side is as locked down as it gets, and they don’t budge or move.”

And this division rears its head on one of the poll’s final questions: With the election of the country’s next president, do you expect the nation to become more united or remain divided?

Twenty-eight percent of voters answered more united, versus 60% who responded more divided.

📊 More from the NBC News poll: It’s clearer than ever after months of close polling and years of intense polarization: Who wins the election could come down to tiny differences in who votes and who stays home. Read more →

📊 Even more from the NBC News poll: Beneath the surface of a tight race, the handful of voters who have wavered in recent weeks between Harris and Trump illustrate the lesser-of-two-evils thinking that could decide the election. Read more →

🗞️ Today’s top stories

🕖 Final countdown: The contrast between Trump’s loose-cannon style and Harris’ more traditional and safe approach has been on full display in the closing days of the campaign. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trumps-loose-cannon-rallies-harris-cautious-endgame-rcna178460">Read more →</a>
🕖 Final countdown, cont.: Regardless of who wins the election, a key fixture of America’s political landscape for nearly a decade is set to disappear: the Trump campaign rally. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-rallies-are-coming-end-rcna178736">Read more →</a>
👀 Trump-RFK connection: Trump didn’t rule out banning certain vaccines if elected and said a push by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to remove fluoride in water “sounds OK to me” in an interview with NBC News. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-banning-vaccines-president-rfk-fluoride-rcna178570">Read more →</a>
🗳️ Down ballot: Bridget Bowman and Faith Wardwell lay out <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/big-issues-surprise-races-5-things-watch-battle-congress-majority-rcna178363">5 key dynamics</a> to watch in the battle for control of the House and Senate, and Sahil Kapur lists <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/four-big-things-winners-congress-will-tackle-2025-rcna178320">4 big things</a> the new Congress will have to tackle next year.
❓Montana Senate update: Republican Tim Sheehy struggled in a new interview to give a clear explanation about the circumstances surrounding a 2015 incident in a national park that led to his treatment for a gunshot wound and receipt of a fine. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/montana-gop-candidate-tim-sheehy-says-no-records-exist-prove-story-gun-rcna178542">Read more →</a>
📺 Wisconsin Senate update: Republican Eric Hovde has focused much of his closing messaging on attacking the finance career of Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s girlfriend, highlighting Baldwin's same-sex relationship. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/wisconsins-senate-race-eric-hovde-closing-message-tammy-baldwin-rcna178429" target="_blank">Read more →</a>
<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/live-blog/election-2024-trump-harris-live-updates-rcna178430">Follow live updates from the campaign trail →</a>

That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at [email protected]

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This article was originally published on NBCNews.com

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