What will Keir Starmer try to achieve during talks with Donald Trump?

Keir Starmer heads to Washington on Wednesday for a visit that will be brief but watched intensely not just in the UK but in many other European capitals – particularly Kyiv. What will the prime minister hope to get from his talks with Donald Trump on Thursday? And just as importantly, how can he get the US president to listen? These will be the main issues.

Ukraine peace talks

Starmer will arrive in the US during a period of political and strategic turbulence in Europe as deep as anything since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Trump began his second term promising to stop the conflict caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine three years ago, and seems to be trying to achieve this by largely listening to the desires of Moscow.

European leaders have been deeply alarmed by Trump’s seeming preference for talking to Vladimir Putin rather than Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and his refusal to even see Russia as the aggressor. Starmer’s job is to somehow persuade the president that a settled, fair peace is in his personal interests, and that this cannot and will not happen if a deal is imposed on Ukraine against its wishes.

The North Atlantic alliance

Another big shock for European nations took place earlier this month when Pete Hegseth, Trump’s controversial choice for defence secretary, arrived at the Munich Security Conference and essentially tore up the postwar defence consensus. The US, he said, was no longer “primarily focused” on European security, spelling an apparent end to one of the central tenets of Nato.

An initial draft of the speech, which was briefed to the media, went even further, saying the US was no longer “the primary guarantor of security in Europe”. Whatever the wording, the message was clear: when it comes to defence against Russia and other potential threats, Europe is largely on its own.

Again, Starmer will want to try to understand what the US actually means by this – assuming there even is a settled idea in Washington – and to impress on Trump why cutting Europe adrift might come back to haunt the US.

Wider defence issues

One of Trump’s perennial complaints, and one of the few where many European leaders might agree, is that the US shoulders too great a share of Nato’s burden, spending about 3.3% of its vast GDP on defence. In contrast, the UK contributes 2.3%, now due to rise to 2.5%, which is among the higher levels among European Nato members.

As a politician Trump appears motivated almost beyond anything else by perceived unfairness, or the idea that he and the US are being taken for fools. Starmer will hope to impress on him that Europe recognises the beginning of a new era and will step up. In response, he will hope for renewed US defence and security guarantees, particularly over the idea of an American “backstop” for any peacekeeping force in Ukraine.

Trade and tariffs

One of the other main hopes No 10 aides have from the slightly unlikely rapport that has been seemingly struck up between the UK prime minister and US president is the hope that when Trump decides on any subsequent waves of tariffs, particularly towards Europe, the UK is spared.

This might not be the most diplomatically dignified mission ever – Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, described it memorably as hoping to not catch the eye of the playground bully – but Starmer and his team will be painfully aware that tariffs on UK goods, and particularly a wider trade war, could wreak havoc on their primary goal of economic growth.

A more formal post-Brexit trade deal would protect the UK even further, but given Trump’s take-no-prisoners negotiating style, plus pledges by Starmer’s government to not water down food safety regulations for US imports, this feels some way in the distance.

Handling the president

This is probably the most important consideration of all. With just about every previous US president, a British prime minister could arrive in Washington with a secure idea of what the administration would say and do. In the Trump era, particularly the second, all bets are off.

It is notable that before setting off, Starmer chatted on the phone with Emmanuel Macron, after the French president’s own Washington visit this week. Macron flattered, indulged and occasionally cajoled his capricious and at times almost toddler-like US counterpart.

Expect fewer chummy hand grasps from the more buttoned-up Starmer, but he will aim to deploy not just flattery but potentially also the hint of things that would appeal particularly to Trump, not least the prospect of a pageantry-heavy state visit.