Will the LA Fires Reignite Rick Caruso’s Political Ambitions?

As houses smoldered and the breadth of destruction from fires that raged through Los Angeles was just beginning to become clear, real estate developer Rick Caruso called into a local Fox station to cast the first stone.

“It looks like we are in a third world country here,” Caruso told the on-air correspondents on Jan. 8. “We have a lot of tough questions that we need to ask the mayor and City Council and our representatives and the county rep.”

It was just over 24 hours since two major fires had ignited across the city. The first in coastal and affluent Pacific Palisades, the second hours later further inland in working-class Altadena. Fueled by parched brush and abnormally strong 100 mph winds, the fire spread easily among homes and businesses. Gusts downed power lines and kept firefighting planes grounded. Some residents were caught so unprepared that they ultimately had to flee the threat on foot.

But as Caruso spoke to the TV station that evening, at a time when many locals had still not learned the fate of their homes, he called out one politician in particular for what he saw as negligence, his former mayoral campaign rival, Karen Bass. 

“This is basic stuff. This isn’t high science here. It’s all about leadership and management that we are seeing a failure of, and all of these residents are seeing the ultimate price for that,” he said.

When the fires began, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass was on other side of the globe, on a planned trip to Ghana. By the next day, Bass had yet to make it home, and her absence opened the door for Caruso.

“On Jan. 7, 2025, it felt like no one was in charge of Los Angeles. No communicating to the residents, no one answering questions and no one giving voice, or no one was even validating the shock and horror of Angelenos,” said Sam Yebri, the board president of Thrive L.A., a group focused on electing moderate Democratic candidates. “And when Rick stepped into that void voluntarily, as a resident and a business owner, as a business owner in the Palisades and resident of Brentwood, I think many Angelenos really appreciated that.” 

Caruso’s insertion into the disaster seemed like a dress rehearsal.

“This was a pretty concerted PR campaign for him to be in as many places as possible,” said one Los Angeles political expert, who asked not to be named because of his previous work with the candidate. “I don’t think that this is just something that someone would do if they didn’t have some kind of political ambitions.”

Caruso ran for mayor in the nonpartisan election in 2022, spending more than $100 million of his own money and outspending Bass 11 to 1. He changed political parties from Republican to Democrat days before registering. Running on a platform of law-and-order and real estate finesse, he did well with largely wealthier neighborhoods, including Bel-Air and the Palisades. But Bass, also a Democrat, was ultimately triumphant. She won by 9 percentage points. The former congresswoman, who at one point was vetted as Biden’s 2020 running mate, announced last year she intends to run for mayor again.

But some have criticized the slow pace of change when it comes to affordable housing and homelessness, her main campaign issues, since Bass took office. Moderate Democrats see the frustration as an indictment of her leadership abilities, and they see the fires as a political opportunity. Politics in the Golden State has also changed. Last fall, California voters overwhelmingly approved a tough-on-crime proposition that increased some sentencing guidelines, and Los Angeles voters ousted their progressive district attorney, opting for a challenger who ran on a platform of increased public safety. Similar voter trends toward the middle have been seen in Democratic cities such as New York. 

Bass declined a request for comment.

“I think for too long, Angelenos have mistaken performative politics for actual performance in office. As a lifelong Democrat, I can say that I’ve seen too much of a focus on who could be, who could appear to be the most progressive, as opposed to who’s going to be doing the best job. And I think that was a factor in the extent of these infernos, the damage of these infernos,” Yebri said.

This wouldn’t be the first time that a disaster launched a candidate to success. Several political consultants pointed to the actions of former California Gov. Pete Wilson after the deadly 1994 Northridge earthquake, which was centered in Los Angeles, saying he was reelected partially on the strength of his response. They caution that Bass’s reactions ― including painfully stoic appearances at conferences ― are not netting her any favors. “She’s not going to necessarily have a lot of opportunities to redefine herself,” the political expert said. 

It’s been reported that Caruso has been considering a second chance at political office for some time. The Los Angeles Times reported that he hired a full-time political director in 2023. Quietly, some moderate-leaning Democrats and Republicans are pushing him to run, though it’s unclear what role he’d be better suited for: a rematch with Bass or a chance at governor after Gavin Newsom terms out next year. The governor’s race could be more opportunistic for someone with Republican roots, but a voter poll taken last October of preferences in a governor’s race placed Caruso near the bottom, behind former Rep. Katie Porter and Vice President Kamala Harris. 

In his mid-20s, Caruso served as a commissioner of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, a government position he still references when talking about Los Angeles’ water needs. But in truth, the 66-year-old, whose father founded Dollar Rent-a-Car, is most known as a billionaire real estate developer. He’s has been responsible for constructing two of the city’s most famous outdoor malls ― picturesque, Disney-like spaces with cobblestone streets and shooting fountains ― The Americana and The Grove. 

Caruso declined a request for an interview.

But when the Palisades burned, his focus was largely on Palisades Village, another Caruso development that was in the heart of the catastrophe. While the majority of homes around the shopping area went up in flames, including the house of Caruso’s daughter, the Village escaped unscathed thanks to a private firefighting crew that Caruso hired to protect the property. 

The Village’s narrow escape has become its own symbol of division. Some see his ability to save his properties as proof of his leadership, though the Village survived largely by tapping into the very water supply Caruso criticized for being inadequate. 

“From a corporate governance perspective, I think there’s no better symbol of management versus mismanagement than the fact that this mall is standing and the rest of the Palisades, which was under the responsibility of City Hall, tragically burned to the ground,” Yebri said. 

Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant at GrassRootsLab and founder of The Lincoln Project, disagreed.

“The only people who would be saying that are either Trump people or MAGA Republicans,” he said, referring to President-elect Donald Trump and his supporters. “If he were hiring private firefighters and using public water and changing the limited scarce resources at a time of disaster to protect that while people were losing their homes, like I don’t think that’s going to sit very well.”

Caruso’s comments have drawn support from right-leaning voices on social media, such as investor Tyler Winklevoss, but it’s attention that Caruso, who is attempting to appeal to liberals, might not have intended.

Yet Madrid argues Caruso’s run could still be effective.

“I think he’s operating in a circumstance where Karen Bass is deeply, deeply, deeply wounded, yeah. So is it enough to prevent him from winning if he were to run again? No. I think he’s going to be extraordinarily competitive.”

Experts say a lot will come down to how Bass’s team responds now that the city’s major fires are coming under control. She might have missed the chance to control the narrative when the fires began, but she can own the reconstruction.

“I don’t know a single elected official, not even Trump, who can stop a natural disaster with their magical powers… but their magical powers come to play post-tragedy,” said Mike Trujillo, a Democratic strategist who had worked with former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. “Bass is going to have a tough test in front of her, and it’s going to be about rebuilding, cutting red tape, essentially getting the government out of the way so that way homeowners can rebuild their homes, and folks and families can have a sense of normalcy back.”

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