Wilting French maize to shrink Europe's harvest as farmers fear repeat of 1976

By Gus Trompiz and Luiza Ilie

PARIS, July 10 (Reuters) - After weeks of sweltering heat and drought, farmers and analysts fear France's maize crop could be the smallest in 50 years, dealing another blow to ‌European production of the cereal after growers cut back on plantings.

Grain trade association Coceral cut its outlook ‌for European Union maize (corn) production on Friday by nearly 8% to 52.7 million metric tons, the lowest since 2007. That followed a 7% cut in ​the production forecast by commodity data firm Expana, with both forecasters citing weather damage in France and also Hungary.

With France in its third heatwave since late May and little rain forecast in the coming days, crop losses could mount and outweigh any boost to the European harvest from much-improved rainfall in Romania.

French maize conditions plummeted to their lowest in at least 15 years last ‌week, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed.

"Yield ⁠damage is increasing day by day because of the heat and lack of rain," said Benoit Fayaud, senior grain analyst at Expana.

The firm currently projects the French crop at 8.9 million ⁠metric tons, one-third below last year's level, and Fayaud said it sees scope for production below 8 million tons for the first time since 1976 - another year of extreme summer weather.

SALVAGING PLANTS FOR FEED

Some farmers in western France started cutting non-irrigated maize crops even ​before ​grain pollination this week to salvage plants for use as livestock ​fodder, said Franck Laborde, head of growers group ‌AGPM.

The AGPM last week projected a 30% drop in production to 9.5 million tons, the lowest this century, and Laborde said it expects to revise down its outlook, partly as early cuttings will reduce the area to be harvested as grain.

The current heatwave is due to continue until early next week before some showers and moderate heat from mid-week.

GOOD RAIN IN ROMANIA

Weather stress to crops in France, as well as Hungary and Spain, has further dented EU maize harvest prospects, with planting ‌estimated to have dropped below 8 million hectares for the first ​time this century.

Farmers have been discouraged by poor yields during increasingly hot ​and dry summers, and this year by a surge ​in fertiliser and energy costs.

Romania has lost about 1 million hectares of maize since 2019 ‌as successive droughts have prompted a shift towards other ​crops, said Cezar Gheorghe of ​grain market consultancy AGRIColumn.

However, maize production in the country is on course to rise this year, boosted by ample rainfall that should help yields offset the decline in sowing area.