Wisconsin and Florida races give jolt of energy to Democrats in fight against Trump

Democrats were the clear winners in election contests on Tuesday that offered a temperature check on the popularity of Donald Trump and Elon Musk.

In Wisconsin, Susan Crawford, a liberal judge backed by Democrats, won a seat on the state supreme court, defeating her conservative opponent Brad Schimel by 10 points (Trump carried the state by one point in November). Crawford won despite Musk and allied groups spending a staggering $25m on Schimel’s behalf. Every single county in Wisconsin shifted in Democrats’ favor compared to the 2024 election.

Crawford has served as a circuit court judge in Dane county, which includes Wisconsin’s liberal capital city, Madison, since 2018. She held various positions in Wisconsin government, including in the state’s department of justice, during the 2000s, before becoming chief legal counselor to Wisconsin governor Jim Doyle from 2009 until 2010. She then went into private practice, where she worked on a challenge to Wisconsin’s voter ID law, representing Planned Parenthood in an effort to protect abortion rights in the state, and represented public sector unions challenging a Wisconsin law that gutted collective bargaining rights for teachers and other public sector workers.

Her victory means that liberals will maintain a 4-3 ideological balance on the state supreme court, at a critical moment when the justices are set to hear cases that will determine the future or abortion and collective bargaining rights in the state. The court may also order the state to redraw its eight congressional districts, which are currently heavily distorted in favor of Republicans.

In Florida, Republicans held two congressional seats, winning special elections in two deeply conservative districts but by much smaller margins than expected.

There’s little question that all three races offer a jolt of energy to the Democratic party that is facing deep anger from voters who say the party isn’t doing enough to fight back against Trump.

Democrats were motivated by their ire for Musk

The Wisconsin supreme court race was the most expensive race in judicial history, with more than $100m being spent overall. Musk, the world’s richest person, tried to reprise many of the tactics he used to get Trump elected in November, deploying canvassers throughout the state, handing out $100 to voters who signed a petition opposing “activist judges” and giving away $1m checks.

Crawford and Democrats leaned into making the race about Musk, betting that he was unpopular enough with voters that they would be motivated to come out. The state Democratic party put up billboards across the state and ran ads highlighting his attempt to buy a state supreme court seat.

That strategy seems to have worked and turnout skyrocketed in Wisconsin. Unofficial results show around 2.4 million people voted in the election. While turnout is usually significantly lower in off-year elections, the number of people who voted in Wisconsin on Tuesday is not that far off from the number who voted in the 2022 midterm elections (2.7 million). In Milwaukee, the state’s largest city and a Democratic bastion, turnout was so high that officials reported running low on ballots at some locations. By comparison, 1.8 million people total voted in the 2023 state supreme court race.

Sending a message to other Republicans about Musk

Ben Wikler, the chairman of the state Democratic party, understands that the race has significance beyond Wisconsin.

If Musk were successful in Wisconsin, it would have cemented his status as a kingmaker who Republicans needed to be beholden to in order to win elections. But because Democrats won despite his intervention, it sends a message that Republicans didn’t necessarily need to heed Musk and that the world’s richest man will not necessarily “save their bacon” if they take unpopular positions.

“That could have a profound impact on the whole arc of American politics in this era,” he said in an interview before the election.

That approach was matched by robust fundraising from Democrats, who were able to keep up with Schimel on the airwaves.

Indeed, the race seems to have sent a message that Musk might not be as powerful as some believed.

“I’m honestly shocked. I thought we had it in the bag,” said Pam Van Handel, chair of the Republican party of Wisconsin’s Outagamie county, to Politico. “I thought [Musk] was gonna be an asset for this race. People love Trump, but maybe they don’t love everybody he supports. Maybe I have blinders on.”

The five months since the 2024 presidential election have been soul-searching for Democrats. Fractured after Kamala Harris’s loss in the race, the party has struggled to coalesce around a strategy for fighting back against the onslaught of actions from the Trump administration to reshape American government and life.

Tuesday may be a turning point.

Crawford’s 10-point victory in the Wisconsin supreme court race, and a victory over Elon Musk, is a blunt reminder that the party can win big in one of America’s most politically competitive states.

And even though Republicans won two special elections in Florida, Democrats did better than expected.

In Florida’s first congressional district, Democrat Gay Valimont lost to Republican Jimmy Patronis by 17 points. While that’s still a commanding GOP lead, it’s narrower than 2024, when she lost to Republican Matt Gaetz by 32. Valimont also flipped Escambia county, in the western part of the Florida panhandle. A Democratic presidential candidate has not won the county since 1960.

In Florida’s sixth congressional district, Democrat Josh Weil lost to Republican Randy Fine by 14 points. In 2024, Mike Waltz – now Trump’s national security adviser – won the district by 33 points. Weil also was able to far outraise Fine in the race.

Republicans struggle in elections where Trump is not on the ballot

A key part of Trump’s strategy for winning the presidency in November was his ability to turn out people who normally don’t participate in politics. Republicans appear to have been unable to replicate that on Tuesday, when the voters who turned out were more likely to have supported Harris in 2024.

While there’s still a long way until the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential election, the Wisconsin result suggests that Republicans still have to figure out how to turn out low propensity voters when Trump is not on the ballot. More immediately, some election analysts have pointed out that the electorate and result in Wisconsin on Tuesday is a strong signal for the Virginia gubernatorial race in November.

Huge consequences for abortion, labor and congressional districts in Wisconsin

Even before Musk got involved in the race, the state supreme court race carried huge stakes for Wisconsin.

The court is likely to decide the future of abortion and collective bargaining rights in the near future. And it could soon be asked to strike down the state’s eight congressional districts, where Republicans control six of eight seats. The district lines are severely distorted in favor of Republicans.

House Republicans have an extremely narrow margin in the US House, so a redrawing that benefitted Democrats could have huge consequences. Musk himself spoke about the importance that a redraw could have when he visited the state on Sunday.

“Whichever party controls the House to a significant degree controls the country, which then steers the course of Western civilization.”