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4 takeaways from the new campaign finance filings: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, we share what stood out most after sifting through a pile of new campaign finance reports. Plus, Jonathan Allen explains why the 2028 presidential contest won’t feature a shortage of candidates.

There’s also a special election today in New Jersey’s 11th District to fill Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s old seat. Read our preview here and make sure to tune in to the Kornacki Cam at 7:45 p.m. ET to follow along with the results.

Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.

— Adam Wollner

4 takeaways from the new batch of campaign fundraising reports

By Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman, Joe Murphy and Owen Auston-Babcock

Scores of new fundraising reports filed this week are shedding new light on the battle for control of Congress and on fast-approaching primaries as both parties grapple with generational and ideological divides.

We crunched the numbers on all of the reports from House and Senate candidates. Here’s what we learned:

Primary headaches persist for Democrats: At least nine House Democrats and one Democratic senator, Ed Markey of Massachusetts, were outraised by their primary challengers in the first fundraising quarter of the year, suggesting the energy within the party that is clamoring for new leaders is fueling some of these contests.

More broadly, two dozen House Democrats and two Senate Democrats face primary challengers who raised around $200,000 or more during the first three months of the year. Only one House Republican was outraised by a primary challenger, and only two Republicans face opponents who raised more than $200,000.

A caveat: Strong fundraising doesn’t always lead to a victory, especially since incumbents bring other advantages to their races, including high name recognition and established bases of support.

House challengers post strong numbers in key races: Seven Democratic House challengers outraised Republican incumbents in races rated as either toss-ups or “leans” by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, compared with three Republican challengers who outraised Democratic incumbents.

Those Democratic candidates include two in Pennsylvania (Janelle Stelson and Paige Cognetti) and two in Iowa (Christina Bohannan and Sarah Trone Garriott). And the Republican challengers include two in Texas (Tano Tijerina and Eric Flores).

Democrats rake in cash in Senate battle: Democratic Senate candidates in the 11 most competitive races, per the Cook Political Report, combined to raise a whopping $127 million in the first three months of the year, doubling Republicans’ total of $63 million.

Democrats have also been spending big, so the gap in cash on hand was narrower, with Democrats combining to report $189 million in their campaign accounts to Republicans’ combined $152 million.

Independents to watch: Independent Senate candidates who could shake up their races posted notable hauls. In Montana, Seth Bodnar raised $1.3 million in his first fundraising quarter, while Nebraska’s Dan Osborn raised $1.2 million. Brian Bengs of South Dakota pulled in $230,000.

For subscribers: Trump backed this giant TV merger. Then his allies and opponents teamed up to block it.

By Daniel Arkin

New York Attorney General Letitia James is one of President Donald Trump’s highest-profile political adversaries. Newsmax CEO Chris Ruddy is one of Trump’s longtime friends. But on at least one issue, James and Ruddy are united.

New York and Newsmax have each brought court challenges to the merger of broadcast station owners Nexstar and Tegna, a corporate union that promises to reshape the American television landscape from coast to coast.

Keep reading →

Why both parties should expect crowded 2028 presidential fields

Analysis by Jonathan Allen

Former Vice President Kamala Harris fired up the political hot stove when she acknowledged the obvious last week: that she’s “thinking about” running for president again in 2028.

Why not?

Harris already has the necessary but not sufficient tools that prove elusive for many Oval Office hopefuls: universal name recognition and a deep well of donors. Polls consistently show her at the top of the primary heap among Democrats.

And while many Democrats fear that 2024 proved she can’t win, there’s a distinguished list of presidential campaign losers who came back to claim the Oval Office. Just ask Presidents Donald Trump, Joe Biden, George H.W. Bush, Richard Nixon, Grover Cleveland, Thomas Jefferson and others.

With the presidency as the reward, the risk — of defeat, even embarrassing defeat — seems like a small entry fee. The risk-reward gap will be magnified in 2028 with the watershed end of the Trump era, because his successor will get to define the next generation of policy choices and politics.

The prospective Democratic field is already filling. And for those who don’t have to give up their current seats — former officeholders, governors and senators whose seats aren’t up in 2028, business leaders and others — there’s little downside in running. At worst, they can raise their own profiles. At best, they can get what amounts to a roughly 50-50 chance of becoming president if they win the party’s nomination.

On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance’s inside track as Trump’s No. 2 hardly makes him a prohibitive favorite to win the Republican nomination. There’s no guarantee that he will inherit the MAGA base that has been Trump’s sword and shield for more than a decade in electoral politics.

Incumbency has its advantages. Like Harris, Vance would walk into a primary fight with fame and campaign fortune. But his potential rivals know that they risk having to wait eight more years if he wins the presidency. Trump has suggested that both Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be good for the job — hardly a forceful endorsement of his own VP.

If Vance is to be the heir to the MAGA movement, he may well have to fight for the mantle. Sens. Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton and Josh Hawley are among the Republicans who have made their interest in the presidency clear (Cruz ran and lost to Trump in the 2016 GOP primaries). None of them are up for re-election in 2028, and they could campaign for the nomination without sacrificing their current perches. There are any number of Republican governors, Cabinet members and lawmakers for whom running makes more sense than standing on the sidelines.

Vance hasn’t even said he has made up his mind to run — though he’s making his first trip to Iowa, the state that traditionally kicks off the GOP nominating season, as vice president this month.

The best assumption for political observers is that they’re all running until they aren’t.

🗞️ Today's other top stories

⚫ Tragedy in Virginia: Justin Fairfax, a former lieutenant governor of Virginia, fatally shot his wife and killed himself in their home overnight, according to local police. Read more →
➡️ Ceasefire: Trump announced that the leaders of Israel and Lebanon had reached a ceasefire deal as fighting raged between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. Read more →
🚫 The nays have it: The Republican-controlled House voted 214-213 to reject a resolution ordering Trump to end the war with Iran. Read more →
☑️ The ayes have it: The House also passed legislation, with the support of 10 Republicans, that would reinstate temporary protections for Haitian immigrants living in the U.S., breaking with Trump on immigration. Read more →
⚖️ In the courts: Former Trump attorney John Eastman was disbarred in California over his efforts to engineer a last-ditch strategy to overturn the 2020 presidential election results. Read more →
📺 “Meet the Press” interview: Mayor Zohran Mamdani condemned the U.S. war with Iran, saying it has inflated costs in New York City that were already high. Read more →