4 weeks ago

Apple dodged Trump's tariffs the first time around. This time, iPhone buyers could take a hit.

Tim Cook.

Apple CEO Tim Cook faces some tough decisions, analysts said.Justin Sullivan/Getty
  • Apple faces challenges from President Donald Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods.

  • A US 20% tariff on goods from China threatens Apple's vast supply chain in the country.

  • The iPhone maker is likely weighing its options to avoid cost impact, analysts said.

Apple managed to avoid some tariffs on goods from China during President Donald Trump's first term. This time around, it's unclear if Apple CEO Tim Cook can get the same carveouts — despite promising investment in US manufacturing and jobs.

Apple is facing a potential financial hit from Trump's tariffs on goods from foreign countries, including China. Trump doubled the tariff on goods from China from 10% to 20%, on top of existing levies, and slapped a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, beginning Tuesday.

Apple, which has a large supply chain network in China, will have to navigate the effects of Trump's executive order. Morningstar estimates that 70% of iPhones are manufactured in China, while S&P Global said it's about 90% in 2025.

The order could also weigh on sales of products in Greater China itself, which represented 17% of revenue last year.

If the tariffs remain as they are, analysts expect Apple to make adjustments to offset the potential financial impact. However, Forrester analyst Dipanjan Chatterjee said the company's plans will "likely be in flux for some time."

He added, "Apple is sorting this all out now."

Consumers can "expect mixed signals," said Jacob Bourne, an analyst at BI's sister company, EMARKETER.

Here are the options that Chatterjee and other analysts who follow Apple say the tech behemoth is considering.

Cook successfully secured exemptions from the 10% tariff on goods from China during Trump's previous term, and analysts haven't counted him out this time.

Apple has already said it'll add to its US footprint, including pledging a multibillion-dollar investment toward its projects and saying it plans to hire 20,000 people over the next four years. It's partly an attempt to gain exemptions for Apple during this term, Bourne said.

"We're optimistic that Apple's $500 billion investment announcement will help the firm gain an exemption from the tariffs underway," Morningstar analyst William Kerwin said.

If not, it'll have to examine other options.

It's too soon to know Apple's "mitigation strategies" for certain, but increasing the price of consumer goods likely isn't off the table, Chatterjee told BI.

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