As Trump shows lack of direction on Iran, even Badenoch distances herself

When is a U-turn definitely a U-turn? To the consternation of politicians through the ages, this is rarely something within their control, but decided instead by the herd. And thus it is with Kemi Badnoch over Iran and Donald Trump.

The Conservative leader would very much like it to be known that she had not changed her stance on the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, or on the US president.

This did not, however, prevent Keir Starmer from attacking her for a second consecutive week at prime minister’s questions about a subject where he and his advisers clearly believe Badenoch has found herself on the wrong side of public opinion.

At the end of last month, when the first bombs and missiles fell on Iran, Badenoch was adamant that Starmer should have let the US use UK airbases for the pre-emptive attack, one that Starmer was advised most likely breached international law.

The Tory leader said she stood “with our allies in the US and Israel as they take on the threat of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its vile regime”.

Ten days later, as it became increasingly apparent that the US campaign had no apparently agreed goal or endpoint, and after polls showed steady opposition to it among the British public, Badenoch denied that she had wanted the UK to take part.

“I said that we support their actions. I never said we should join,” she told an interview, to some head-scratching by pundits and MPs in response. Asked to clarify a couple of days later, Badenoch’s spokesperson said, even more gnomically: “We are at war. The difference is, we’re not joining the war. We’re in the war.”

Badenoch’s position, as explained by her allies, is that she never wanted actual UK involvement in the strikes.

Once Iran began retaliating, they say, her only point of difference from Starmer was to call for UK military efforts to seek out missile sites targeting British targets in the Middle East rather than just intercepting missiles and drones – stopping the archer rather than just catching the arrows, as she put it.

“That’s not a U-turn, that’s policy evolving as the conflict evolves,” one ally said, a distinction where Starmer seems unlikely to buy into the nuance.

In geopolitical rather than Westminster terms, what is perhaps more interesting was Tuesday’s decision by Badenoch to publicly call out Trump’s repeated and often personal attacks on Starmer, calling them “childish”.

The comments came in a pooled BBC clip, with one Tory insider saying Badenoch had simply decided that the ongoing barrage of insults was “unseemly” and “getting ridiculous”, and that it was time she made this plain.

While they insist her change of stance towards Trump was, as with Iran, shaped purely by events and without an eye on polling, it is nonetheless politically useful to Badenoch to distance herself from a president she has previously cited as a model for her own leadership.

One of the few constants of recent UK political opinion has been Trump’s unpopularity. Just 13% of Britons currently declare themselves fans of the president, with the only outliers on this being Reform UK supporters.

More generally, Trump’s repeated stream of insults towards Starmer, and the fact they are mainly connected to his frustration with events in Iran, has made it easier for UK politicians to be a bit more blunt than usual about the president.

Sent out on the government’s morning interview round on Monday, Pat McFadden, the work and pensions secretary, gave an unusually clear answer when asked about Trump’s barely veiled threats to undermine Nato if allies did not send ships to help unplug the strait of Hormuz.

“It’s a very transactional presidency, and our job is to navigate this,” McFadden said, uttering out loud what is, in private, the very obvious view not just in London but dozens of other capitals weary of Trump’s capriciousness.

Diplomatically, Trump’s second term has at times resembled an increasingly drunk and abusive great uncle at the Christmas table, with every other guest trying to save the occasion by pretending things are normal. But as soon as someone points out the obvious, others feel compelled to join in. No one, even Badenoch, wants to be the odd one out.