7 hours ago

MAGA sticks with Trump on Venezuela — for now: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, a newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Katherine Doyle explores how President Donald Trump’s base is sticking with him as he ramps up pressure on Venezuela — and what the breaking point could be. Plus, Ben Kamisar and Stephen Pettigrew dig into the district-level results in last month’s Virginia gubernatorial election for clues about next year’s midterms.

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— Adam Wollner

After Trump promised 'no new wars,' Venezuela escalation could test MAGA’s tolerance

Analysis by Katherine Doyle

President Donald Trump’s political base has offered little resistance to his escalating pressure campaign on Venezuela, even as he edges closer to the kind of military confrontation he has long criticized elsewhere.

After he won last year, Trump declared in his victory speech that he was “not going to start a war, I’m going to stop wars,” praising the “strong” U.S. military that, “ideally, we don’t have to use.” And this year, he denounced decades of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, decrying “Western interventionists” who had given other countries “lectures on how to live.”

That stance has been tested as his administration seized an oil tanker, with Trump suggesting the U.S. could carry out land operations aimed at removing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The administration’s campaign has already resulted in more than 26 boat strikes, killing at least 98 people, including a “double tap” strike now under congressional scrutiny.

Earlier this week, the president said he was ordering a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers to and from Venezuela, accusing its government of using oil revenue to finance illicit operations, such as “drug terrorism.”

The unfolding campaign has become a test of whether Trump’s political coalition will tolerate the use of force so long as it stays targeted and does not produce American casualties, political analysts and administration allies said in interviews with NBC News.

“MAGA loves blowing up the boats,” said Rachel Bovard, vice president of programs at the Conservative Partnership Institute. “They do not want a land war with Venezuela.”

While “America First” loyalists have questioned Trump’s focus on other foreign issues — including Ukraine, Israel and a slew of peace efforts across the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia — they appear to be holding their fire on Venezuela for now.

Read more from Katherine →

What the November election results in one key state mean for the battle for the House

By Ben Kamisar and Stephen Pettigrew

As both parties race to redraw congressional lines before next year’s midterm elections, Virginia represents one of Democrats’ best chances to blunt Republican attempts to pad their congressional majorities.

It’s unclear whether Virginia Democrats will be able to execute a high-wire act to successfully change their map for next year’s elections. But either way, this November’s election results there highlight how an energized Democratic Party could win back control of the House next year.

High turnout helped propel Democratic Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger in more Republican-leaning areas, and Spanberger improved on Democrats’ 2024 margins in the most diverse congressional districts, a new NBC News Decision Desk analysis of the governor’s race results showed.

Throughout the year, President Donald Trump’s strong performance in 2024 with nonwhite voters and younger voters has served as something of a baseline for Republicans who, at his behest, touched off a redistricting arms race that’s expected to continue into next year. The Virginia gubernatorial results, broken down by congressional district, underscore how quickly voters can shift from one election to the next and highlight some of the risks of the extraordinary effort.

Virginia’s congressional delegation is narrowly divided, with six Democrats and five Republicans. But last month, Spanberger carried not only each district her party represents, but also two Republican-held districts.

Spanberger made gains of more than 7 points each, compared with 2024, over Kamala Harris’ margins in GOP Reps. Rob Wittman’s and Jen Kiggans’ districts.

While the electorate that turns out in next year’s midterm elections won’t be the same as the one that helped Spanberger cruise to victory, those results suggest that, even if Democrats do not redraw their districts, Wittman and Kiggans could face spirited re-election challenges next year.

Read more from Ben and Stephen →

🗞️ Today's other top stories

📉 Some economic relief: Inflation in November fell to 2.7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Read more →
🎙️ Speech recap: Trump used a prime-time speech last night to deride his predecessor, assert that his economic plan is working and suggest that Americans need to be patient as his policies start to kick in. As for his announcement that U.S. troops would get a $1,776 bonus, it will cost about $2.6 billion and be paid from military housing funds.
🏥 The new Health Dept.: The Trump administration announced it would begin to take steps aimed at ending transition-related care for minors nationwide. Read more →
🌳 In the weeds: Trump signed an executive order to fast-track the reclassification of cannabis, which would pave the way for the Food and Drug Administration to study its medicinal uses. Read more →
🏛️ What’s in a name: The board of the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., voted to rename it the “Trump-Kennedy Center,” though such a move could require congressional approval. Read more →
🤝 Getting down to business: Trump Media is merging with a nuclear fusion company. Read more →
🚫 On second thought: The Democratic National Committee won’t release its completed postmortem of the 2024 election that was ordered by DNC Chair Ken Martin shortly after he was elected. Read more →