Wisconsin provides a critical test for Democrats' anti-Elon Musk playbook

Next week’s Wisconsin Supreme Court race is emerging as the first big test of Democrats’ anti-Elon Musk strategy as the party searches for a winning message following its loss to President Donald Trump last November.

Trump’s billionaire adviser has been a major player in the technically nonpartisan judicial race: Musk’s super PAC has emerged as the top spender in the contest and has offered $100 to Wisconsin voters to sign a petition to oppose “activist judges,” while he often posts about the election on his X feed.

Between that and his polarizing efforts through the Department of Government Efficiency to slash the size of the federal government — and polling that shows he’s less popular than Trump, who endorsed conservative candidate Brad Schimel last week — Democratic-aligned groups and liberal candidate Susan Crawford have made Musk a major focal point in the race’s final stretch.

It’s a playbook that Democrats could seek to replicate elsewhere if it’s successful in one of the country’s tightest battleground states.

“Democrats can’t win against Trump right now,” Brandon Scholz, a Wisconsin Republican strategist, said. “They can still beat the hell out of Musk.”

Scholz argued that Democrats would risk juicing conservative turnout in the off-year election by attempting to make Trump, who narrowly carried Wisconsin on his way to winning a second term in the White House, the center of their strategy.

“I don’t think the Democrats want to draw [Schimel] to Trump, because that gives MAGA voters incentive to come out to vote,” Scholz added.

Tuesday’s race will determine the state Supreme Court’s ideological balance for the second time in two years — and likely along with it the future of several key issues, including abortion rights, unions and congressional maps. Crawford is a state judge in Madison who earlier worked in the Democratic administration of then-Gov. Jim Doyle, while Schimel, a state judge in Waukesha County, previously was the state’s Republican attorney general.

Crawford and groups supporting her have criticized Musk’s money and influence on the race on the airwaves.

One television ad from the Crawford campaign, which began running on cable and broadcast in the state Tuesday, features a former assistant district attorney from Madison claiming that Musk “is trying to buy this election with ads that lie about Judge Susan Crawford.” Another recent Crawford campaign TV ad accused Musk of “trying to buy Schimel a seat on the Supreme Court because he knows Schimel always helps his big campaign donors.”

Crawford has repeatedly used Musk as a foil at campaign events, and she attributed her latest fundraising haul to grassroots donations “from folks who don’t want Elon Musk controlling our Supreme Court.”

“Voters are very animated by Musk,” Crawford campaign spokesperson Derrick Honeyman said in an interview. “That’s why you see us mentioning Musk in the campaign.” Honeyman added the Crawford campaign wasn’t planning to run any ads in the race’s remaining days directly mentioning Trump.

The Democratic Party of Wisconsin has also been hosting a town-hall tour across the state called “People v. Musk,” with surrogates like Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz using the events as platforms to further bash Musk and DOGE.

At one such event earlier this month in Eau Claire, Walz said Wisconsinites could use their Supreme Court race ballots to convey their disapproval of Musk’s work in the federal government.

“This is where you send a message,” he said, adding that a Crawford win would mark a rebuke to Musk and represent “cleaning the house — one chunk at a time.”

“And America’s first chunk of cleaning is Wisconsin’s Supreme Court, April 1,” he said.

Responding to questions about the left’s attempts to tie Schimel to Musk and about whether Schimel was seeking to link himself to Trump, Schimel campaign spokesperson Jacob Fischer said in an email that “the attempts by Susan Crawford and the Democrats to distract the people of Wisconsin from her extreme views and the radical billionaires funding her are a mockery of hypocrisy.”

A representative for Musk and a White House spokesperson who handles inquiries regarding Musk and DOGE didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Polling shows Musk’s favorability underwater

Recent polling in Wisconsin and nationally suggests that DOGE’s tactics are pushing voters’ patience and that Musk has emerged as a riper political target than Trump for Democrats.

Polling released this month from Marquette University Law School found that more registered voters in Wisconsin (53%) viewed Musk unfavorably than favorably (41%). By contrast, the survey showed that voters in the swing state were more split on Trump’s job performance (48% said they approved; 51% said they disapproved) and on whether Musk’s DOGE was properly carrying out Trump’s agenda (47% said it was; 53% said it wasn’t).

A national NBC News poll released this month offered similar findings: More voters (51%) viewed Musk negatively than positively (39%) and more held negative views on DOGE (47%) than positive (41%). Meanwhile, Trump’s job approval rating was split, with 47% approving and 51% disapproving.

Musk endorsed Schimel on X in January days after his electric car company, Tesla, filed a suit in Wisconsin challenging a state law banning carmakers from owning dealerships. The case could end up before the state Supreme Court.

The race is the most expensive state Supreme Court campaign in U.S. history — surpassing a record set in Wisconsin in 2023 — with outside groups alone having spent more than $86 million so far.

Musk’s America PAC is the top outside spender in the race at $11.5 million so far — including $4.7 million since just March 18 — focused largely on canvassing and get-out-the-vote efforts.

A GOP-aligned nonprofit group with past ties to Musk, Building America’s Future, is the third-biggest outside spender in the race with $4.8 million, which has largely gone toward digital ads. While Reuters and The Wall Street Journal have both reported that Musk helped to fund the group in the past, it’s not clear whether he’s still involved.

A spokesperson who handles questions for America PAC and Building America’s Future didn’t respond to questions.

But overall, Democrats hold a slight ad spending edge in the race, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, outpacing Republican-aligned groups $31.1 million to $26.4 million through Wednesday.

The vast majority of ad spending from the pro-Crawford side comes from her campaign, while outside groups account for the bulk of the pro-Schimel ad spending. And overall, Crawford’s campaign reported spending more than $21 million through March 17, compared with $9.5 million for Schimel’s campaign.

Aside from the high levels of spending, there's also been a surge in early voting in the race, which kicked off last week. In-person absentee voting has already exceeded total levels during Wisconsin's 2023 spring elections, while total absentee voting is on pace to push past 2023 levels in the coming days.

Trump makes a late entrance

Even if he hasn’t been front and center, Trump, who posted on Truth Social last Friday urging Wisconsin voters to turn out early for Schimel, has still been a presence on the campaign trail in Wisconsin.

Schimel’s campaign launched a TV ad that went on the air Wednesday touting the endorsement. Mailers paid for and placed by America PAC, for example, tout Schimel as the candidate who will “support President Trump’s agenda.”

And two 30-second ads, funded by the Republican State Leadership Committee, which boosts GOP candidates in nonfederal statewide races, launched Friday just hours before the president’s endorsement. Both emphasize how voters in Wisconsin just months ago delivered the state for Trump — and how a Crawford win could jeopardize his accomplishments.

“Last year we showed up for Trump and he won,” a narrator says in one of the ads. “President Trump needs us again.”

But groups on the left have yet to run ads trying to weaponize the endorsement, according to an NBC News analysis of AdImpact data.

Meanwhile, Schimel’s views on Trump have long been in plain view. He appeared at a campaign town hall event this month with Donald Trump Jr. and recently told a group of canvassers from the conservative group Turning Point USA that Trump needs a “support network” around him to help him fight the myriad suits his administration has faced. Schimel has also supported Trump’s unfounded claims of voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election.

“Schimel needs Trump to win. He needs every MAGA voter to turn out to win,” Scholz, the GOP strategist, said. “He wants to draw close to Trump.”

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com